Risk, Ambiguity, and the Rank-Dependence Axioms
نویسندگان
چکیده
Consider an urn holding 101 balls, each marked with a number from 1 through 4. You don’t know the number of balls of each type, but you do know that exactly 50 are marked with either a 1 or a 2, and 51 are marked with either a 3 or a 4. This is a variation on the classic urns of Daniel Ellsberg (1961). Given its information structure, you don’t know the probability of any given number being drawn, but you do know there’s an exact 50/101 chance of it being either a 1 or a 2, and a 51/101 chance of it being either a 3 or a 4. Say you were offered the following pair of bets on this urn. Which one would you choose? (Of course, you could be indifferent between the two bets.)
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تاریخ انتشار 2009